Dear reader,
the author came along a joke yesterday on Twitter which was about the recognition (or rather the lack of it) of the big elephant in the room. He also came along a somewhat frustrated very prominent and highly esteemed professor of economics who choose some wording expressing his inability to change course of events very much influenced by inaction of the leading politicians.
So the question is if todays politicians are qualified to act decisively and much faster in order to stay in front of developments instead of running miles behind those deteriorating circumstances. As a someone who still knows the "old days" and the looming danger for western Europe which was known back then just as "the Russians, the reds" the question arises if todays politicians are still able to detect a catastrophe in the making as it was when the eastern block would have gotten their marching orders to invade the west.
Of course I apologize to any Russian citizen living in the present time which have no intention of invading us anymore but i wanted to use the example of a known danger of the PAST and the readiness of politicians and other responsible people to react swiftly in order to contain a situation. The had worked out plans, scenarios but also the necessary "guts" to open their eyes to focus on the advancing danger and to act swiftly if there was a need to.
Back then it was vital to stay focused in order to survive and the limitations and stakes were also present of every members of European government mind and it was a question of survival not to make dumb mistakes of either to take too many risks or just taking none.
The question today everybody with some knowledge of economy or interest in not to have it smashed is asking: Are todays politicians still got that "right stuff" ? The ability to see the big picture .. to detect cracks/openings which might form a danger in some days to come. Like in a chess game where it is less about responding to the last move of the opposing party but to foresee the next 10 possible moves. Today it is asked if we still see the big elephant in the room as the one in that joke but it isn't really funny anymore. There are people like those professors (and many others !) who are baffled how things can get out of control and politicians doing nothing, arranging meetings have "blabla" statements released and are pretty much involved in "business as usual". Not all of course (there are also responsible ones but maybe not in the right position right now) but many many still convinced to be able to apply their usual political game play in order to uphold their seat in parliament or their post within the government. There are countless negotiations and really important people around the world including those with the stacks of cash able to pull the plug are even suspecting if he persons who act as if there years left to take action are from thee same planet.
Of course we know that members of the FED , the ECB, Bundesbank and other central bankers are working round the clock not only to "watch the situation closely" as the politicians are the uncontested masters in but to react swiftly within THEIR POWERS to the situation. The framework which limits their actions of course are those regulations only to be changed by elected politicians which are used more to inaction than to action. If everyone is sticking to rules and to their mental inflexibility we are heading for a big catastrophe which might even be equal to Russians invading Europe back then. But the author don't want to be just another Cassandra but to give some examples also how things can be handled if not "business as usual" is handled.
I also remind politicians occasionally to some events of history where brave men/women were in the right position who had what to it takes to handle a crisis situation and this time i remind European politicians of a still highly respected "elder statesmen" named Helmut Schmidt , former Chancellor of Germany who saved thousands of lives 1962 (as a young local politician) when a storm front and flood hit Hamburg and were he was way out of line when he immediately involved the national army & NATO to help handle a catastrophic situation which was also forbidden by constitution and he was prepared to face the personal consequences LATER if he is was ever charged for not "playing by the book".
And by "action" the author doesn't mean the usual crap politicians put on their political agenda in order to have SOMETHING which their political opponent was just to reluctant to embarrass him/herself with and "sell" it to their electorate. Measures for instance to cover up a situation ("shoot the messenger") instead of solving the problems responsible for that. Politicians still obviously think rather of their nice well paid seat in parliament and where they are rather prepared to let their whole country go down the drains (Greece) instead of just stopping to act like a stubborn animal we all know and cherish of course.
[update Nov. 28th]
after reading this the author had to think about this rather "classical" movie:
The Poseidon Adventure (1972 film)
as a rerun with Wolfgang Schäuble in the role of the Stewart urging the people to stay in the capsized ballroom and José Manuel Barroso as the guy urging people a few decks higher to walk to the bow of the ship and this group gets submerged , too
[/update]
[update Nov. 28th]
China fund keen on Western infrastructure
Advice to politicians: Be Superman not Clark Kent ! (eng)
So that's confirming my assumptions 100% ...
Only that also needs some thinking of strategic "limits" of China involvement in our states in the (currently unlikely) event of confrontation/tensions. But that question also would have come up by other financial involvement for buying u large chunks of out (the USA, Europe) state bonds. But in the current (self inflicted!) situation i guess we don't have much of a choice. Mr Osborne in UK already setup an investment fund for British infrastructure . .there are articles by ft.comm but only for registered users. As more "free" info on the subject becomes available.. you will find it here (of course)
[/update]
reference:
North Sea flood of 1962
Sturmflut 1962
Helmut Schmidt
Helmut Schmidt (eng)
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