Forecasting the Greek economy: IMF vs EC #fail

@pierrebri An amazing mea culpa from the IMF’s chief economist on austerity [WashPost,2013] http://t.co/BsApgsNP1E #reminder #IMF #Greece
— EZR news channel (@EZR_news) March 18, 2015

IMF admits: we failed to realise the damage austerity would do to Greece [Guardian, Jun 5 2013]

As @IMF prepares to lower its forecasts for Greece again, a reminder of its recent record. @EdConwaySky pic.twitter.com/CnklxeYsqQ
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) April 18, 2015

Latest figures show Greek government spending cuts have been savage ... and so has the fall in GDP: pic.twitter.com/8W10PqxNQR
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) April 15, 2015

Latest Greek data show govt spending -21% since 2011, nominal GDP -14%, debt/GDP 177%. Maybe austerity isn't working? pic.twitter.com/tcBIUV5QLd
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) April 15, 2015

EU Commission's forecasting better or worse ?:

 (infographics by ThomsonReuters)

and (for comparison) Greece's government forecast (2012):

  (infographics by ThomsonReuters)

and ...
The full picture (2009 - 2014) Data by ELSTAT  
- Greece's statistics office [pdf, 34 pages, Apr 17 2015]

comments by Paul Krugman on #Greece forecasting of IMF, EC & ECB 
Talking to Paul Krugman (Harald Schumann on the trail - the complete interview)  
[Youtube, links directly to forecasting comments]

[update]Christine Lagarde (IMF) visited UvA (Amsterdam University) May 7th

Only a few weeks after interviewing Mario Draghi, Room for Discussion managed to invite ... 




Guest:  Christine Lagarde 
What:   Speech and Q&A session with students afterwards
When:  Tuesday , May 7th 2013, 10.30am CET
Where: E-hall, Roeterseilandcomplex. Roetersstraat 11, Amsterdam 

This time they won't have live questions asked by the audience. 

Please submit questions:
Twitter: @Room4Discussion
e-mail:  roomfordiscussion@sefa.nl.  

RTL Z NieuwsLagarde bij Room for Discussion 
(rtl.nl, video, approx 1h)

details:
Christine Lagarde at 'Room for Discussion' (roomfordiscussion.com, Dutch)
[update]
Room for Discussion with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde  (uva.nl, Apr 24th 2013)
Live op rtlz.nl: Christine Lagarde bij Room for Discussion (RTLZ, Dutch) <=livestreamimg !!
[/update]


note: So far no link for live streaming of the event, but in the past video footage 'live' and/or 'on demand' was available


Follow @Room4Discussion Follow @Lagarde

Toward a Stronger Eurozone: Fostering Growth and Completing the Architecture of EMU (IMF discussion)

A discussion panel at the IMF spring meeting in Washington last weekend

Moderator: Stephanie Antoine (France24) (@SAntoineF24)

David Lipton IMF First Deputy Managing Director 
Jörg Asmussen Member of Executive Board of the European Central Bank 
Ramon Fernandez  Director General of the Treasury and Economic Policy Directorate in France 
Adam Posen (@AdamPosen) President of Peterson Institute for International Economics 
Changyong Rhee Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank 

Toward a Stronger Eurozone: Fostering Growth and Completing the Architecture of EMU 
(IMF, video, 58 minutes) (via @Piie_com)

Reactions/Questions by Twitter (IMF)

IMF: Slovenia 2013 Staff Visit—Concluding Statement of the Mission

Slovenia 2013 Staff Visit—Concluding Statement of the Mission (IMF,Mar 18th 2013) (via @ALeipold)

Events after the big Eurozone rescue summit Dec. 9th

					Dear reader,
					so it's now for the governments to hammer out agreements of tighter budget controls and penalty mechanisms for "sinners".
					So in order to keep track of events taking place after the summit you will find here a compilation of such events such as changes in yields, exchange rates and other market reactions as well as advances in legislation agreed upon during the "big summit" of December the 9th. Listed by country as information gets available. The summit results will be put in the "summit & policies" blog entry to be found here. So as always in a fluent situation updates will take place from time to time and since beginning of December you will find a list of updated articles in the section "update policy" in order to see which entries were subjected to such an update.
					- The treaty -
Dec	17th	2011			EU sets out "compact" for tighter fiscal rules
Dec	17th	2011			The latest treaty draft (german link)
Dec	17th	2011	*		Economical union (dut/eng link)
Dec	10th	2011			'Golden rule' seen as answer to currency's woes
					- Markets -
					EUR/USD
Jan	12th	2012			Euro still rising against dollar: $1.2838 now +1.1% after opening below $1.27 at $1.2698 (via @lindayueh)
Jan	9th	2012			EURUSD 1.26685 (via @FGoria)
Jan	5th	2012			Euro: $1.2799 (via ChrisAdamsMKTS)
Jan	5th	2012			EUR/USD hit lowest since Sept 2010 on concern over Europe’s ability to fund sovereigns. After mixed #France bond auction #Euro hit 1.2831. (via @Schuldensuehner)
Dec	14th	2011			Euro rate below 1,30 now
					EUR/CHF
Jan	12th	2012			Euro rate 1,2100 (temporarily) (@djfxtrader)
Dec	15th	2011			Euro rate 1,2255
					Yields/CDS/spreads (be advised that yields can differ from source to source based on different interpretation, no guarantee whatsoever for values given here: Check Reuters, Bloomberg etc !)
					Ger
Jan	18th	2012			Germany received bids for EUR7.596bn for 2 year note auction vs max sales target of EUR4bn. Average yield was 0.17% & strong demand. (via @lindayueh)
Jan	12th	2012	#		Money for nothing: Wall Street Journal Germany
Jan	11th	2012			German 5 year debt auction sold EUR3.153bn vs max EUR4bn, bids for EUR8.97bn, strong demand 2.8 (v Dec 2.12) & yield lower too 0.9% (v 1.1% (via @lindayueh)
Jan	9th	2012			Germany sells EUR3.9bn of 6-month zero-coupon bills for yield of -0.0122% even if demand is slightly lower at 1.8 & just retained EUR100mln. (via @lindayueh)
Jan	4th	2012			Germany received EUR5.14bn of bids for max E5bn, sold E4.057bn at yield 1.93%. Cheaper than Nov 1.98% but it's demand that's what matters. (via @lindayueh)Dec 29th [10y Bond Yields] Germany= 1.86
Dec	17th	2011	#		Commerzbank could not meet capital requirements without public funding (german link)
					Hol
Jan	24th	2012			NETHERLANDS SELLS 1.8B€ VS. €1.5-2.5B INDICATED RANGE IN 2013 AND 2042 BONDS (via @trader1806)
Jan	24th	2012			NETHERLANDS => Sells €465M in 1.75% 2013 Bonds; avg yield 0.074% v 0.861% p - Sells €1.34B in 3.75% 2042 Bonds; avg yield 2.690% v 4.03% p (via @trader1806)
					Aut
Jan	10th	2012			Austria sells 10YR bonds at average yield 3.322%, down from 3.528% in the last July auction but yields rose for 5yr bonds 2.21% v 1.96% Nov (via @lindayueh)
Jan	4th	2012			Österreich-Bonität leidet unter Ungarn-Wirren:Kosten für Kreditversicherungen gegen Zahlungsausfall
					von #Österreich auf über 200BP gestiegen (via @Schuldensuehner)
					Ita
Jan	24th	2012			Italian gov bonds advance for 7th day: 2YR note rises, yield -5bp to 3.53%, 10YR bonds rise, yield -6bp to 6.03% -close to falling below 6% (via @lindayueh)
Jan	20th	2012			Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.306%(via @FGoria)
Jan	18th	2012			Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 6.419% (via @FGoria)
Jan	12th	2012			Spread and yield fall below crucial levels
Jan	9th	2012			Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 7.152% (@FGoria)
Dec	29th	2011			Monti pledges market reform and growth in 2012
Dec	29th	2011	#		Monti starts 2nd part of reform agenda:growth package (ger)
Dec	29th	2011			Monti calls for united response to eurozone crisis
Dec	29th	2011			10-year bond yield falls below 7%
Dec	27th	2011			Italy Govt Bonds 2 Year Gross Yield 5.041% - Italy Govt Bonds 5 Year Gross Yield 6.352% - Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 7.073% (via @FGoria)
Dec	23rd	2011			***Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield 7.015%*** (via @FGoria)
Dec	19th	2011			2YR bond yield <5% for 1st time since Nov 1: 4.98% -31bp; 5YR -29bp 6.06%, 10YR +19bp 6.79%. Yield curve is steepening. (via @lindayueh)
Dec	15th	2011			10yr bond 7,29 % (source Reuters via @FGoria)
Dec	15th	2011			10yr bond 6,77% (ansa.it)
					Spa
Jan	12th	2012			Relief for Italy and Spain in bond auctions
Dec	20th	2011			Spanish bill auction yields: 3 mo bills 1.735% (v 5.11% in Nov) & 6 month bills 2.435% (v 5.227% in Nov) -both big drops in borrowing costs (via @lindayueh)
Dec	15th	2011			10 yr bond 5,4% spread to Italian 160 BP (source: Die Welt)
Dec	15th	2011			Solid demand for Spain's bonds
Dec	15th	2011			Spain appears to be a safer bet for investors than Italy
					Por
Jan	4th	2012			Portugal April Bill Avg. Yield 4.346% Vs. 4.873% on Dec. 7 (via @Schuldensuehner)
Dec	15th	2011			10yr bond mid yield 12,54 % (via @Tradeweb)
					Fra
Jan	16th	2012			French Yields Drop at First Bill Sale Since S&P Downgrade of Nation’s Debt
Jan	3rd	2012			RTRS: French 23-week T-Bill for EUR 2.202bln, bid/cover 2.827 vs. Prev. 4.01 (yield 0.074% vs. Prev. 0.553%) (via @FGoria)
Jan	3rd	2012			RTRS: French 12-week T-Bill for EUR 4.438bln, bid/cover 1.72 vs. Prev. 2.61 (yield 0.023% vs. Prev. 0.005%) (via @FGoria)
					Bel
Dec	20th	2011			Dexia Sells Luxembourg Unit to Qatari Fund
Dec	20th	2011	#		Qatar rulers and Luxemburg buy Dexia daughter (german link)
					Irl
Dec	19th	2011			Ireland Government Bonds 5 Year Note Generic Bid Yield 7,9920 %
Dec	15th	2011			10yr bond mid yield 8,56 % (via @Tradeweb)
					Gre
Jan	10th	2012			Jan  10th Greece sells 1.625B euros (yield 4.90%) and bid to cover ratio at 2.80 (26 weeks T-Bills) (via @EfiEfthimiou )
Dec	15th	2011			Dec 15th 10yr bond mid yield 31,7 % (via @Tradeweb)
					(UK)
Jan	18th	2012			UK gilts hit new record lows today: 10 year bond yield 1.92%, 30 year bond yield 2.93% (via @lindayueh)
Jan	10th	2012			UK GBP700M 2047 IL Gilt Sale Cover 1.92; Real Yield -0.116% (via @djfxtrader)
Dec	23rd	2011			UK Govt Bonds 10 Year Note Generic Bid Yield 2,04 %
Dec	16th	2011			10yr gilt 2,05% (via @lindayueh)
					(Ch)
Jan	10th	2012			Switzerland sells CHF512.75mln of 364-day bills at a negative yield of -0.251%. (via @lindayueh)
Dec	29th	2011			[10y Bond Yields] Switzerland=0.67 (via @LISwires)
Dec	20th	2011			Switzerland sells CHF773.25mln 91-day bills at -0.431% Yields becoming more negative 12/13 -0.399%, 12/6 -0.32%, 11/29 -0.316%, 11/15 -0.3% (via @lindayueh)
					- Institutions -
					IMF
					click here for detailed list (last update Dec 19th 2011)
					EFSF
					click here for detailed list (last update Jan 05th 2012)
					ESM
					click here for detailed list (last update Dec 15th 2011)
					ECB
Jan	9th	2012			Italy banks increased sharply their use of ECB loans to over €200bn last month, accounting for almost a quarter of total liquidity supplied (via @ChrisAdamsMKTS)
Jan	9th	2012			ECB lending to Portugal rises
Jan	4th	2012			Bank deposits with ECB hit record
Jan	3rd	2012	#		Surprising decision: Asmussen not going to be chief economist (ger)
Jan	3rd	2012	#		ECB discusses post of chief economist (ger)
Dec	29th	2011			ECB jumps back in after lukewarm Italian sale
Dec	28th	2011			ECB Balance Sheet Increases to Record 2.73 Trillion Euros
Dec	27th	2011			Nervous banks place record €411bn with ECB as eurozone woes continue
Dec	19th	2011			It depends how much money European banks will get out of the unprecedented ECB 3yr offer. Estimates vary between €450-750 bln. (via @Schuldensuehner)
Dec	19th	2011			Sarko -trade in action:It looks as if banks follow Sarkozy's call for them to use ECB funds to buy sov debt.Span 2yr notes rose for 7th day (via @Schuldensuehner)
					Banks
Jan	8th	2012			EU, US and Japan agree to undergo 'detailed' reviews of Basel III implementation
Jan	5th	2012	#		Spanish banks have to capitalize 50bn € for possible mortgage problems (ger)
Jan	4th	2012			UniCredit Slumps on 43% Rights Offer Discount
Jan	4th	2012			Credit Agricole pumps €2bn euros into Emporiki
Jan	1st	2012			European banks: Hose and dry
Jan	1st	2012	#		5th year of banking crisis: business models tumbling (ger)
					Other
Dec	14th	2011			Bernanke rules out FED helping Eurozone in a meeting with republican senators.
					- Countries -
					The Netherlands.
Dec	11th	2011	*		According to an interview today, Sunday with Dutch finance minister De Jager rules have now to be changed in the way that:
					National parliaments must provide numbers of future budgets to European commission where they will be checked. And if they are over the predefined limit automatic sanctions will be imposed UNLESS some 85% of EZ member votes stop those.
					30 new laws on bank recap and enhanced regulation were announced.
					He didn't elaborate much on the growth part of the "big summit" ...only that he referred to the Eurozone plus package.
Dec	13th	2011	*		Dutch central planning agency: Netherlands in recession now. GDP will shrink 0,5% in 2012. Budget deficit will reach 4,1%, unemployment will rise (link in dutch)
					Germany
Dec	14th	2011	#		Coalition agree upon new bank rescue fund (SoFFin) without forced recap (link german)
					France
Jan	01st	2012			French VAT hike to hit pizzas, quiches - not baguettes
Dec	14th	2011			Markets in expectation of downgrade by Standard & Poors. French politicians issuing statements of "would be not good but also not catastrophic". Market explanation: "lowering expectations"
Dec	15th	2011			Christian Noyer is wrong - what France lacks is credibility
Dec	17th	2011			Fitch revises outlook on France to 'negative'
					Greece
Jan	19th	2012			PM seeks to rally support as troika arrives
Jan	16th	2012			Officials dispatched to US as default fears grow
Jan	16th	2012			46 Days to Avoid Greek Default
Jan	12th	2012			Euro Checkers: Guide to Greek PSI
Jan	4th	2012			Commission demands return of €435m in farm subsidies
Jan	3rd	2012	#		Credit negotiations: Greece threatens to exit eurozone (ger)
Jan	3rd	2012			EU: Greek PSI Must Be Resolved Before 2nd Bailout Program Resolved [Dow Jones] (via @djfxtrader)
Dec	31st	2011			Greeks must avert economic collapse, euro exit: leader
Dec	29th	2011			Prosecutors’ resignation spurs political storm
Dec	29th	2011			Greek bond swap deal may soon be reached: official
Dec	28th	2011			Financial prosecutors resign, claiming interference
Dec	27th	2011			New Democracy drops February election demand
Dec	27th	2011			Retail sales down 30 percent over Christmas
Dec	27th	2011			Papandreou expresses support for interim PM
Dec	27th	2011			‘I'll stay active,’ Papandreou tells critics
Dec	15th	2011			Unemployment at record high, seen rising further
					Ireland
Jan	24th	2012			Noonan presses for cut in cost of bank rescue
Dec	18th	2011			Hayes calls for debt reduction
Dec	16th	2011			Fitch puts Ireland on rating watch negative (eng)
Dec	15th	2011			Deficit target 'ambitious'
					Belgium
Dec	16th	2011			Moody's cuts Belgium ratings by 2 notches
Dec	16th	2011			Fitch puts Belgium on rating watch negative (eng)
Dec	17th	2011	*		Bel. FinMin after downgrade:"We must more then ever stick to our goals" (dutch link)
					Italy
Jan	20th	2012			Govt approves liberalisation package
Jan	10th	2012			Fitch sees significant chance of Italy downgrade
Jan	9th	2012			Italy banks increased sharply their use of ECB loans to over €200bn last month, accounting for almost a quarter of total liquidity supplied (via @ChrisAdamsMKTS)
Dec	31st	2011			Italian president urges sacrifices to save economy
Dec	27th	2011			Italy Retailers in Worst Christmas in 10 Years
Dec	22nd	2011			Factbox: 'Save Italy' package
Dec	17th	2011			Monti Wins Approval for Italian Austerity Plan in Lower House
Dec	16th	2011			Fitch puts Italy on rating watch negative (eng)
					Spain
Jan	4th	2012			***Spain has no plans to seek EU and IMF loans for bank overhaul, according to the Deputy Communication Minister*** (via @FGoria)
Jan	2nd	2012			deficit could surpass 8% (ger)
Dec	31st	2011			Spain sets out plans to cut deficit
Dec	22nd	2011			Spain names ex-Lehman executive as economy minister
Dec	19th	2011			Spain's Incoming President Announces His Plans To Stabilize Spain
Dec	18th	2011			Spain PM to outline tough reforms
Dec	16th	2011			Fitch puts Spain on rating watch negative (eng)
					Austria
Jan	1st	2012			Spindelegger wants stop of new employment in public sector (ger)
					Slovenia
Dec	16th	2011			Fitch puts Slovenia on rating watch negative (eng)
					Cyprus
Dec	16th	2011			Fitch puts Cyprus on rating watch negative  (eng)
					Portugal
Jan	24th	2012			Fears Mount That Portugal Will Need a Second Bailout
Jan	20th	2012			Has Portugal's debt default clock begun to tick?
Jan	19th	2012			Portugal to need "debt haircut" as economy tips into Grecian downward spiral
Jan	9th	2012			ECB lending to Portugal rises
Dec	20th	2011			Portuguese finance minister Gaspar: budget deficit will be about 4% this year. If this is met, would be on course to meet 2012 4.5% target. (via @lindayueh)
					(UK)
Dec	4th	2011			Growth in UK construction accelerates
Dec	17th	2011			Financial services in Britain: The blitz spirit
					* = Dutch, # = German language

Explanations ...

Killing the Euro (Paul Krugman)

Fed bazooka aimed at the eurozone

US: Why Did the Unemployment Rate Drop?

Europe made easy (simple)

EU-Verträge: Für Verfahrensfeinmechaniker 

Top-Jurist hält Euro-Bonds für verfassungswidrig

Dossier: Hungary

Dear reader,

it came to the authors attention that currently news agencies seem to have a competition ongoing of who is first on single news headlines and what to conclusions to draw out of a few headlines. Hectic seems to be the result of latest Zeitgeist thing which make or break countries not by their fundamentals or longer term prospects and also its recent history or the path chosen by its current leaders. Well if one call a few month before current date "history" at all. The author was also quite shocked to see some articles this week which took one single chart of industrial production in two countries to back up claims for a full scale ECB action in unleashing its "big bazooka" onto the eurozone members by unlimited bailout of debt stricken countries and therefore also lowering their cost of borrowing > calming markets. Almost as in the the good old days where apples and oranges were getting mixed. And it's not only a habit of our American friends.

As a member of the "old school" (survivor of the cold war) of gathering as much data as possible BEFORE drawing any conclusions and also not to get sucked into the quagmires of whatever propaganda but keep it strictly to facts it seems to be a good idea to start a series of dossiers on countries , their economies, leaders and politics in order to get to know the fundamentals and perhaps then be able to put to propaganda/gossip into a perspective.  So what you will find here will be much more comprehensive than some cheering remarks of the HUF taking a dive against the EUR or default is looming for Hungary. So we start here with some articles about Mr Orban and his much hated government from the perspective of many other European politicians. Lately also accompanied by some bank of some countries (not all EU members) which had realistic fears of someone who "threatened" to pay back their loans immediately.

to be continued

references:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungary
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_forint
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n
PM says Hungary’s dependence on euro zone disadvantage, wants new banking rules
Despite threats ‘I won’t let myself be intimidated’
Hungarian Leader Takes On Foreign Critics
Ungarn-Regierung-droht-Massnahmen-gegen-Banken-an
Orban greift Österreich-Banken an
2011, Nov 16th  BayernLB verzweifelt an Ungarn: "Tut uns enorm weh"
2011, Nov 11th  Hungary's economy: Hat in hand again
2011, Nov 22nd Hungary’s Banks Expect a Difficult Year Ahead 
2011, Nov 23rd Ungarn wittert Kartellabsprachen bei Töchtern der Austro-Banken
2011, Nov 24th ECB And Banks Furious At Hungarian Solution To Swiss Franc Mortgage Problem
2011, Nov 25th Ungarn auf Ramschniveau
2011, Nov 26th The euro trigger (text & video) Al Jazeera
2011, Nov 26th Ungarn will mit EU, IWF und Banken kooperieren
2011, Dec 1st   Hungary Omits Top Economic Policy Maker From IMF Delegation
2011, Dec 1st   Ungarn bekommt nur zu hohen Zinsen frisches Geld
2011, Dec 2nd  Hungary and the IMF: not so fast
2011, Dec 7th   Morning Briefing: Polish Rate Decision, Hungary 2012 Growth Plans 
2011, Dec 8th   Insight: Credit noose tightens slowly in central Europe
2011, Dec 10th Hungary aiming for 10-15 billion euro IMF/EU deal: analysts
2011, Dec 16th IWF zeigt Ungarn die rote Karte
2011, Dec 20th Hungary Hikes Base Rate To 7.00% From 6.50%, As Expected [Dow Jones] (via @djfxtrader)
2011, Dec 20th Paul Krugman: More Hungary

2011, Dec 21st Hungary’s Orban and his central banker
2011, Dec 21st Hungary Downgraded to BB+ by S&P
2011, Dec 29th Hungary Financing May Be Precarious as Hopes Dim for IMF Support
2011, Dec 31st EU-Kommission prüft Ungarns Notenbank-Gesetze 
2012, Jan  3rd  EU checking whether to challenge Hungary bank law
2012, Jan  5th   AUSTRIA: The Real Reason Anyone Gives Two Cents About Hungary
2012, Jan  7th   Hungary: "We are open to discussions" (ger)
2012, Jan  8th   From Here To Eternity, Hungarian Style
2012, Jan  9th   Viktor Orbán gives his side of story
2012, Jan  9th   Hungary Bonds Gain as Orban’s IMF Pledge Props Up Debt Auction
2012, Jan  9th   Erste Bank and Raiffeisen bank int.: 19bn Hungary loans (ger)
2012, Jan  9th   Slovaks Storm Hungarian Shops as Forint Hits Record Lows
2012, Jan 10th  Hungary sells HUF56bln of 3-month bills at yield of 7.98% with good demand: bid-to-cover 2.74, yields rising from Jan 3rd auction: 7.67%. (via @lindayueh)
2012, Jan 11th  EU to Recommend Hungary Sanctions
2012, Jan 12th  Hungary Accuses U.S. of Meddling in Domestic Politics 
2012, Jan 14th  Hungary far right demands exit from EU, burns flag at rally 
2012, Jan 18th  Forint Advances Second Day as Bonds Rise on Hungary Aid Prospect Optimism 
2012, Jan 18th  Poland’s Kaczynski to Hungarian Leader’s Rescue 
2012, Mar 4th   Victor Orban Interview: "There is a hidden Europe" (FAZ) (ger)
2012, Mar 16th EU: Those Who Compare EU To Soviet Union Don't Understand Democracy 
2012, Mar 16th The EU Soviet? Barroso takes on Hungary’s Orban