Sunday, April 19, 2015

Forecasting the Greek economy: IMF vs EC #fail





EU Commission's forecasting better or worse ?:



 (infographics by ThomsonReuters)

and (for comparison) Greece's government forecast (2012):

  (infographics by ThomsonReuters)

and ...
The full picture (2009 - 2014) Data by ELSTAT  
- Greece's statistics office [pdf, 34 pages, Apr 17 2015]

comments by Paul Krugman on #Greece forecasting of IMF, EC & ECB 
Talking to Paul Krugman (Harald Schumann on the trail - the complete interview)  
[Youtube, links directly to forecasting comments]

Friday, March 13, 2015

Austria's bad bank #HETA (former Hypo Alpe Adria) Developments in AT,DE

Developments after Austrian government declared it won't fill the financial gap discovered in HETA's books.

Publishing of HETA's balance sheet delayed (now end of May) [Kleine Zeitung, Apr 24 2015]
BayernLB sues Carinthia [ORF, Apr 17 2015] 
ECB tells banks to write down Heta exposure by over half - Handelsblatt [Reuters, Apr 14 2015]
Hypo investigation 'not open and transparent'  [The Local Austria, Apr 13 2015]
Bundesbank Tells German Heta Creditors: Expect to Lose Half [Bloomberg, Apr 10 2015]
Hedge Funds Invest in Austrian Bank Loathed by Taxpayers [Bloomberg, Apr 9 2015]

Best of Hypo: Where the billions went [DerStandard, APR 7 2015]
Financially dry Carinthia calls for federal help [KleineZeitung, Apr 2 2016]
Austria Statistics reckons 'HETA hole' to be €4.6bn [Die Presse, Mar 30 2015]
(see Austria Statistics report on fiscal year 2014(ENG))
Austria won't leave Carinthia in lurch over Heta: Schelling [Reuters, Mar 27 2015]
Ice age between Germany and Austria re Heta billions [Reuters(DE), Mar 27 2015] 
BayernLB boss slams Austrian government  [TheLocalAustria, Mar 26 2015]
BayernLB posts 1.3 bln euro loss on Heta writedowns [Reuters, Mar 25 2015]
Austria, Banks And Sovereign Default  [F Coppola,Forbes, Mar 25 2015]
German insurer Talanx says Heta to hit Q1 earnings  [Reuters, Mar 23 2015]
Why Has Germany Bailed Out A Tiny Bank? [F.Coppola,Forbes, Mar 21 2015]
Austrian Banks Set for Fitch Downgrades on State Support  [Bloomberg,Mar 19 2015]
HETA: German banks & Austrian hypos are bleeding [DerStandard(AT), Mar 18 2015]
HETA drags Hypo Tirol into the loss zone [NZZ(AT), Mar 18 2015]
Chancellor Faymann defends HETA solution [KleineZeitung(AT),Mar 18 2015]
Liabilities of Austrian states higher than expected [DerStandard(AT), Mar 18 2015]
Debunking $1.4 Trillion Europe Debt Myth in Post-Heta Age  [Bloomberg, Mar 17 2015]
Government Promises and the Next Bank Crisis  [Bloombergview,Mar 17 2015]
Carinthia has its liabilities checked [Wirtschaftsblatt(AT),Mar 17 2015]
German banks' deposit guarantee fund saves Düsseldorfer Hypothekenbank [FAZ, Mar 16 2015]
Commerzbank exposure to HETA: €400m [DerStandard, Mar 16 2015]
Austrian states accept their liability up to €1.2bn [Kurier(AT), Mar 12 2015]
German Banks Emerging as Losers in Heta Wind-Down [Bloomberg, Mar 12 2015]
Carinthia: parliament united [ORF, Mar 12 2015]
Schaeuble wants to talk about HETA (in Vienna) [Wirtschaftsblatt, Mar 12 2015]
Bavaria doesn't rule out consequences for the budget [DerStandard(AT), Mar 12 2015]
Stop of debt payments invokes turmoil in Germany [Kurier(AT), Mar 12 2014]
(incl. list of German banks exposed to HETA)
German banks afraid of losing billions (>€5bn) [Kurier(AT), Mar 12 2015]
German Banks Have Large Exposures to Heta [Fitch Ratings, Mar 12 2015]
Heta Fallout Reaches DuessHyp as Fitch Sees Capital Gap Looming  [Bloomberg, Mar 11 2015]
Haider comes back to haunt Austria's finances [France24, Mar 11 2015]
Austrian FMA will impose "haircut" percentages, no negotiations w creditors [Kurier(AT), Mar 11 2015]
Fitch Places DHB's 'BBB-' IDR on RWN; Downgrades VR to 'c'  [Reuters, Mar 10 2015]

Heta Damage Spreads in Austrian Downgrades, German Losses [Bloomberg, Mar 9 2015]
Moody's downgrades State of Carinthia's rating to Baa3 from A2 and changes outlook to negative from stable  [Moody's, Mar 6 2015]
Dexia Kommunalbank has 395 mln euros of claims against Heta bad bank [Reuters, Mar 6 2015]
Fitch Affirms BayernLB's VR at 'bb+'  [Reuters, Mar 5 2015]
Austria to Ask Heta Creditors to Take Voluntary Losses [Bloomberg, Mar 3 2015]
Eurozone faces first regional bankruptcy as debt debacle stalks Austria's Carinthia[Telegraph, Mar 3 2015]

Kaiser (Carinthia's leader): "We can't steer this" [Kurier(AT) , Mar 3 2015]
What Do You Do When A "Bad Bank" Fails? [Frances Coppola, Mar 2 2015]
Will Austria lead Germany into another round of banking crises? [Shaun Richards, Mar 2 2015]



comments:

        (Carinthia's leader ('Landeshauptmann')) 


        (Bavarian finance minister)







note: as usual expect some updates during the next couple of days, stay tuned ...