Sunday, November 2, 2014

ECB stress test 2014, facts, comments & related news

The facts:

2014 EU-wide stress test results [EBA, Oct 2014]
Comprehensive assessment [ECB, Oct 26 2014]

comments, discussion, related news:
ECB Plans ‘Intrusive’ Probe of Banks’ Risk-Weight Models [Bloomberg, Nov 18 2014]
After AQR and stress tests – where next for banking in the Eurozone?  [T Beck,VoxEU, Nov 10 2014]
Eurozone Bank Regulator to Follow Up on Stress Tests  [Dealbook,NYRimes, Nov 3 2014]
Danièle Nouy : « Les "stress tests" étaient nécessaires pour retrouver la confiance »  [Les Echos. Nov 3 2014]
Cracks in the Stress Tests of European Banks [NYTimes, Nov 1 2014]
European stress tests not stressful enough [Frances Coppola,Pieria, Oct 28 2014]
Monday blues for Italian banks [Silvia Merler, Bruegel, Oct 28 2014]
Bankentest is moeilijke evenwichtsoefening [Paul de Grauwe,Oct 28 2014]
Mediobanca plans no M&A, year gets off to strong start [Reuters, Oct 28 2014]
Banks now ready to face any risks [Cyprus Mail, Oct 28 2014]
Stress Tests: Statement form Roberto Gualtieri the ECON Chair  [, Oct 27 2014]
European Bank Tests Not As Stressful As Hoped [Forbes, Oct 27 2014]
Under full capital rules, 36 EU banks would have failed test [Steve Slater,Reuters, Oct 27 2014]
The ECB’s Stress Tests and our Banking Dis-Union: A case of gross institutional failure [Yanis Varoufakis, Oct 27 2014]
For Spanish Lenders, What a Difference Two Years Make [Dealbook,NYTimes, Oct 27 2014]
European Stress-Test Results Have Isolated Errors, Inconsistencies  [WSJ, Oct 27 2014]
Italy Bank Mergers Possible After ECB Tests, Industry Group Says [Bloomberg, Oct 27 2014]
ECB Review Marks End of Europe Banking Crisis, Dijsselbloem Says [Bloomberg, Oct 27 2014]
European Stress Test Results – Both ‘Worrying and Reassuring’ [WSJ, Oct 27 2014]
ECB stress tests vastly understate risk of deflation and leverage [AEP,Telegraph, Oct 27 2014]
E.C.B. Stress Tests Seen as Bolstering Confidence in Banks [Dealbook,NYTimes Oct 27 2014]
Europe’s Banking Union starts on an encouraging note  [N Veron, Bruegel, Oct 27 2014]
Only Few Banks Failed, But The ECB "Stress Test" Also Reveals Weaknesses Of Those That Passed  [S & P Global Credit Portal, Oct 27 2014]]
Monte dei Paschi’s Stress-Test Failure Opens Door to Possible Merger, Sale [WSJ, Oct 27 2014]
The European Commission welcomes the publication of the results of the EU-wide stress test [,Oct 26 2014]
The marathon has only just begun – what will come after the stress test? [Bundesbank, Oct 26 2014]
Bank of England statement on EBA stress test publication [Bank of England, Oct 26 2014]
Dexia et Axa Banque Europe recalées aux stress tests, mais sans conséquence  [LeSoir(be) Oct 26 2014]
A Country-by-Country Breakdown of the Stress Test Fails [WSJ blog, Oct 26 2014]
Volksbanken Faces Scrutiny as ECB Finds $1.1 Billion Hole  [Bloomberg, Oct 26 2014]
Van Overtveldt: "Met Dexia zitten we duidelijk op het goede pad" [De Morgen, Oct 26 2014]
For Europe’s banks, $36-billion hole isn’t as deep as it seems  [Globe & Mail, Oct 26 2014]
Harmloses Ergebnis mit starker Wirkung [SZ, Oct 26 2014]
ECB faces test of its own as Europe braces for landmark banking review [Reuters, Oct 25 2014]
Who’s afraid of the AQR? [Michiel Bijlsma & Sander van VeldhuizenBruegel, Sep 24 2014]

please note: as usual, some more links will be added in the near future  

Thursday, January 30, 2014

The economics of currency unions by Mark Carney/BoE

Upcoming September the citizens of Scotland will decide about their future.
A referendum whether or not they will remain a part of the UK or to become an independent state will be held on Sept 14th 2014 (Wikipedia) 

Proponents of Scottish independence suggest it's possible to form a common currency (Pound) area union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Scottish Independence: SNP's Alex Salmond Claims Scotland Will Keep Pound, Queen and EU Membership (IBTimes, Nov 26th 2013)

There are others who don't share this view: Scottish independence: Osborne and Alexander dismiss SNP currency plan (BBC, Apr 13th 2013)

The new governor of the Bank of England held a speech outlining what is necessary to form a successful currency area. He draws some conclusions from shortcomings of the euro area and what is needed to avoid a repetition of those mistakes.
From the principles of an optimum currency area (OCA) to details of banking union including SSM,SRM. Certainly worth reading/viewing:

The speech by Mark Carney (links to pdf-transcript & video) (Bank of England, Jan 29th 2014)

some reports/comments on the speech: (to be continued)
Independence with pound would come with strings, Bank of England tells Scotland
(Reuters, Jan 29th 2013)
What is happening in the economic debate over independence for Scotland?
(,Jan 30th 2014)
Carney blow to Scot split plan (City AM, Jan 30th 2014)

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

EU examples of reduced import/export activity (& prices) & declining PPIs/wholesale prices

Eurostat trade statistics (EU28 & EZ18) (pdf, 7 pages, english)

Nov 2013:
The value of exports in November 2013 amounted to SEK 94.5 billion, while imports were valued at SEK 90.5 billion. Compared to November 2012, the value of exports decreased by 5 percent, while imports decreased by 6 percent.
          source: Statistics Sweden (Dec 30th 2013)

Oct 2013:
The total value of imports-arrivals, in October 2013 amounted to 4171,3 million euros (5670,6 million dollars) in comparison with 4530,3 million euros (5859,8 million dollars) in October 2012,recording a drop, in euros, of 7,9%.
The total value of exports-dispatches , in October 2013 amounted to 2324,6 million euros (3179,2 million dollars) in comparison with 2572,4 million euros (3347,4 million dollars) in October 2012, recording a drop, in euros, of 9,6%.
          source: ELSTAT Statistics Greece  (pdf, 10 pages,Dec 24th 2013) 
The Import Price Index in Industry (MPI) in November 2013 compared with November 2012 recorded a decrease of 1.5%. 

source: ELSTAT Statistics Greece (pdf, 7 pages,  Jan 14th 2014)

Compared with the third quarter of 2012, merchandiseexports at €20,604m decreased by €908m while merchandiseimports at €11,658m decreased by €543m.
             source: Balance of International Payments 3rd quarter 2013 (CSO Ireland, Dec 19th 2013) 

3 quarter 2013:
External trade unit values in the 3rd quarter of 2013 lower than in the same period of 2012According to provisional data, in the third quarter of 2013, compared to the third quarter of 2012, external trade unit values decreased on both sides of trade in goods: on the export side by 2.3% and on the import side by 2.2%

             source: Slovenia's Statistical Office (Dec 12th 2013) 

The Netherlands
Nov 2013
The value of exported goods totalled 36.8 billion euros, i.e. 2.7 percent down from one year previously. The value of imported goods fell by 4.0 percent to 32.6 billion euros, resulting in a trade surplus of 4.2 billion euros, 0.3 billion euros more than in November 2012
Import and export prices in November were below the level of one year previously. Export prices fell by 2.4 and import prices by 2.1 percent. As a result, terms of trade deteriorated slightly compared to November 2012.
             source: Modest growth exports (CBS - Dutch Statistics, Jan 15th 2014)

             table: Imports/exports; value, price and volume, index 2010 = 100 and changes (CBS - Jan 15th 2014)

Nov 2013
As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the index of import prices decreased by 2.9% in November 2013 from the corresponding month of the preceding year. In October and in September 2013 the annual rates of change were –3.0% and –2.8%, respectively. 

Import prices in November 2013: –2.9% on November 2012 (Destatis, Dec 23rd 2013)

Destatis table: all prices y/y (import/export/wholesale/producer/retail/consumer) 01/2001 - 12/2013 (Destatis,German)
                                             Importprices, source Konjunkturindikatoren, Importpreise DESTATIS
                                             Producerprices source Konjunkturindikatoren, Erzeugerpreise DESTATIS

Nov 2013

Changes of main commodities in Latvias exports in November 2013, at current prices                     /Nov 2012 -7.7%
Changes of main commodities in Latvias imports in November 2013, at current prices                     /Nov 2012 -9.2%                                                
 source: In November Russia's share in Latvia's exports increases (Statistika Latvijas, Jan 9th 2013)

declining producer & wholesale prices 

Eurostat: Industrial producer prices down by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28 (Eurostat, Jan 7th 2014)
                      Industrial producer prices up by 0.2% in both euro area and EU28 (Eurostat, Feb 4th 2014)

Producer prices for manufactured products fell by 0.9 per cent in November (Statistics Finland, Dec 23rd 2013)

Compared to November of the previous year, the producer price index of total industry excluding construction has decreased by 2.5%. For the domestic market it fell by 2.8%, for the non-domestic markets there was a fall of 3.3%.
source: Belgium - November 2013 : Output price index -0.1% (Statbel , Dec 23rd 2013)

In November 2013 the index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 0.8% from the corresponding month of the preceding year.
Compared with the preceding month the index fell by 0.1% in November 2013 (–0.2% in October and +0.3% in September 2013). 
             source: Producer prices in November 2013: -0.8% on November 2012 (Destatis, Dec 20th 2013) 
In 2013 the index of producer prices for industrial products (domestic sales) for Germany fell slightly by 0.1% on an annual average from the preceding year, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). A year before the index had been up 1.6%. 
In December 2013 the index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 0.5% from the corresponding month of the preceding year. 
             source: Producer prices in 2013: –0.1% on 2012 (Destatis, Jan 20th 2014)

Compared with December 2012, the index decreased by 1.8% in December 2013. In November 2013 the annual rate of change was –2.2% and in October 2013 it was –2.7%, respectively. 
           source: Wholesale prices in 2013: –0.5% on 2012 (Destatis, Jan 14th 2014) 

Industrial Production Prices Index year-on-year change rate was -0.9% in November, up by 0.3 percentage points from the observed in the previous month. The monthly change rate of the total index stood at -0.3% (-0.6% in November 2012). Manufacturing Industry section year-on-year change rate stood at -1.8% (-2.2% in the previous year), while the monthly rate of change was -0.3% (-0.8% in the same month of 2012).

source: Industrial Production Prices Index decreased 0.9% in year-on-year terms - November 2013 (INE_Pt, Dec 18 2013)

The index decreased by 1.8% compared with November 2012 (-2.3% on domestic market and -0.4% on non-domestic market).
             source: Industrial producer prices (Istat, Dec 30th 2013)

PPI table (Dutch)
Producentenprijsindex (PPI) ; afzetprijzen, invoerprijzen, 2010 = 100

Fall in factory gate prices (Nov 2013: -2.8% y/y,Oct 2013: -3.5% y/y)(CBS - Dutch Statistics, Dec 30 2013)
Factory gate prices manufacturing industry down from one year previously (Dec 2013: -1.7% y/y)
(CBS-NL Statistics, Jan 30th 2014)


Producer Price Index, home sales119.7  (Index 2005=100)

November 2013
Change: 0.4%

from corresponding period previous year
Import Price Index109.3  (Index 2005=100)

November 2013
Change: -2.2%

from corresponding period previous year
Producer Price Index112.8  (Index 2005=100)

November 2013
Change: -0.4%

from corresponding period previous year
Export Price Index106.4  (Index 2005=100)

November 2013
Change: -1.2%

from corresponding period previous year
Price Index for domestic supply114.5  (index 2005=100)

November 2013
Change: -0.9%

from corresponding period previous year
source::Producer and import price index (Statistics Sweden)
Wholesale price index in January 2014: -1.9% against January 2013 (Statistik Austria, Feb 7th 2014)

Wholesale price index in December 2013: -1.5% against December 2012; annual average 2013: -1.1% against 2012
(Statistik Austria, Jan 7th 2014)
Wholesale price index in November 2013: -2.2% against November 2012 (Statistik Austria, Dec 6th 2013)

Industrial producer prices in November 2013: -1.2% below November 2012 (Statistik Austria, Dec 30 2013)
Downward trend in industrial producer prices continues in October 2013: -1.4% compared to October 2012 
(Statistik Austria, Nov 29th 2013)

The Producer Price Index in Industry (PPI) in November 2013 compared with November 2012 recorded a decrease of 0.7%. 
             source: Statistics Greece (pdf, 9 pages, ENG)

Noviembre 2013. Datos provisionales
La tasa anual del Índice de Precios Industriales se sitúa en el –0,6%, cuatro décimas inferior a la del mes de octubre
             source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística (pdf, 8 pages, Spanish) 


             Wholesale Price Index 
Nov 2013 price index:101.8    0.0% m/m    -0.9% y/y
             source: Wholesale Price Index (CSO Ireland, Dec 19th 2013)

PPI Nov 2013: -0.8% y/y

source: INSEE  (Dec 27th 2013)
          PPI Oct 2013: -1.3% y/y
             source: INSEE (Nov 29th 2013)

          PPI Sep 2013: -0.9% y/y

             source: INSEE (Oct 31st 2013)

Monday, January 6, 2014

2013: Euro area new car sales/registrations

by Vincent Flasseur/Reuters

Decline in German car sales accelerated in 2013 - KBA (Reuters, Jan 3rd 2014)

(Ireland:)New car sales fell by 6.6% last year despite registration system (, Jan 3rd 2014)
Decrease of 17.4% in new private cars licensed in December (CSO Statistics, Jan 8th 2014) 

"Belgium: 2013 new car sales -0.14% on 2012" (, Jan 3rd 2014)

Spain Car Registrations Show First Annual Growth Since 2010 (2013.+3.3%) (WSJ, date ?)

French and Spanish December car sales lift recovery hopes (, Jan 2nd 2013) 

Italy only major European economy recording auto sales drop (ANSA, Nov 19th 2013)
Fiat Turns to Germany as Italy Sales Seen Worst Since ’66 (Bloomberg, Apr 4th 2013)
Italy Car Sales Rise 1.4% In December (2013: -7.03%) (,Jan 3rd 2013)

Car sales rise in Southern Europe lift recovery hopes (Reuters, Jan 2nd 2014)
Greece: Car sales head north again as 2013 sees annual growth (Ekathimerini, Jan 10th 2014)

 Minder auto’s verkocht in 2013, maar december goed voor record (NRC, Jan 2nd 2014)

Austria:2013: Decrease of new car registrations to 319 035, lorries and two-wheelers decreased as well; increase of used passenger car registrations

Austria in trouble (unemployment/banks)

Hypo-Dead-Bank: Eiertanz um Wyman-Papier (Der Standard, Jan 30th 2014)
Statistics Austria Chief warns of bad bank model (Der Standard, Jan 30th 2014)#
A billion for Hypo this year ? (Die Presse, Jan 29th 2014)#
Hypo-Chef will „Horrorzahlen Lügen strafen“ (ORF (public TV & Radio),Jan 26th 2013)
Hypo: 500 Mio. Euro für Eröffnung der Bad Bank? (Die Presse, Jan 25th 2013)
Raiffeisen boosts capital by 50% in 60 minutes (IFR, Jan 25th 2014)
Low Interest Rates Fueling Real Estate Price Increases in Austria (WSJ, Jan 20th 2014)
Austria: OeNB (Central Bank) urges Hypo bad bank decision (, Jan 21st 2014)
Austria: RBI(Raiffeisen Bank International) to issue new shares (2-2.25 bn€ to repay state aid) (, Jan 8th 2014)Austrian AMS: 2014 unemployment rate to hit 8% this year (, Jan 8th 2014)#
Erste Group intends to keep Hungarian daughter, RBI sells (, Jan 6th 2014) #

Austria: Hypo(Group Alpe Adria) could add another 6% to state debt ( , Jan 5th 2014)#
Hypo bankrupcty could hit Raiffeisen (bank) (, Dec 17th 2013)#
Erste bank writes off 350 million (, Dec 17th 2013)#
The next capital injection for Hypo (, Dec 13th 2013)#
Hypo Alpe Adria: Addional capital of 800 million (total amount: 4.8 bn €) (,Dec 13th 2013)
Banks sitting on 30 bn € of bad loans (, Dec 9th 2013)#
Raiffeisen considers retreat from Hungary (, Nov 11th 2013)#
Does Bank Austria sell its daughter to Ukraine (, Oct 3rd 2013)#
Banks: giant loss in Ukraine (, Apr 2nd 2013)#

(Central Bank president) Nowotny:(IMF proposal of ) levies on savings only during war time (, Nov 5th 2011)#
ECB's Nowotny: Don't Unsettle Savers With Discussion of Compulsory Savings Tax 
(WSJ, Nov 5th 2013)
          engl.: 2013, the year with second highest unemployment rate since 1945 (highest since 1953)

Quarterly Government Debt, 1st Quarter 2000 - 3rd Quarter 2013 (pdf, 1 page, Austria Statistics)

# = German language