Saturday, November 2, 2013

Germany's surpluses: discussion & facts

Ifo-Prognose zur Leistungsbilanz 2013: Eine gut verkaufte Fahrt in die Hölle (W Muenchau, Spiegel, Jan 15th 2014)
Germany is World Champion in Capital Export (CESIFO Group, Jan 14th 2013)
Fratzscher attackiert Sinn: "Deutschland kein Opfer der Euro-Rettung" (Wirtschaftswoche, Jan 11th 2014)
Why “rebalancing” the German economy is easier said than done (Quartz,Jan 9th 2014)(via @jkaraian)
The German Scapegoat (D Gros, Project Syndicate, Dec 5th 2013)(via @JCSBruegel)
What does the German coalition agreement mean for the eurozone? (ECFR, Nov 29th 2013)(v @ECFR)
"Die Koalition wirft Europas Zukunft weg" (A Posen& R Hancke,Die Zeit, Nov 29th 2013)
Where Did All The German Savings Go? (S Fidler, WSJ, Nov 28th 2013)(via @SonyKapoor)
EU commissioner: Germany won't be sanctioned in surplus probe (Reuters, Nov16th 2013)(v @Forexlive)
Don't blame Germany for the eurozone's travails, blame the euro itself (J Warner,Telegraph, Nov 11th 2013)
Germany's Surplus Isn't the Problem (S Nixon,WSJ, Nov 10th 2013)(via @Simon_Nixon)
The view from Germany (S Wren-Lewis,Mainly Macro, Nov 10th 2013)(via @sjwrenlewis)
Treasury and Krugman Are Wrong About Germany (Melvyn Krauss,Bloomberg,Nov 8 2013)(via @HrReisen)
Deutscher Exportüberschuss: Das Märchen vom Gleichgewicht (FAZ, Nov 8th 2013)(via @WelterPatrick) 
Hamish McRae: The Italians and Americans are hardly in a position to lecture Germany on how to run its economy (Independent, Nov 7th 2013)(via @Schuldensuehner)
The German trade surplus may widen with the euro-area recovery (Z Darwas,Bruegel,Nov 7th 2013)
US and Germany trade blows over macro policy, but is Germany's export focus really to blame for the woes of the eurozone? (Open Europe Blog, Nov 6th 2013)(via @LondonerVince)
Blogs review: The deflationary bias of Germany’s current account (Cohen-Setton,Bruegel,Nov 6th 2013)(@bruegel_org)
Germany’s Imbalances: Don’t Weaken our Strengths (T Straubhaar,Transatlantic Academy, Nov 6th 2013) >>
Barroso fordert mehr deutsches Engagement (Tagesspiegel, Nov 5th 2013)(via @AnnaJonky)
Why Germany's Export Machine Is Under Attack (Bloomberg, Nov 5th 2013)(via @crtru)
Germany is a weight o the world  (M Wolf, Financial Times (paywall), Nov 5th 2013)
EU opens door to showdown with Germany on trade surplus (Telegraph, Nov 5th 2013)(via @TeleFinance)
Those Depressing Germans (P Krugman, NYTimes, Nov 4th 2013)(via @raluca3000)
Germany Is Being Crushed by Its Export Obsession (A Posen, Peterson Institute, Nov 3rd 2013)
German Surpluses: This Time Is Different (P Krugman, NYTimes, Nov 3rd 2013)(via @NYTimesKrugman)

EU's Barroso urges Germany to act on euro imbalances (Yahoo/Reuters, Nov 3rd 2013)
Europe is a currency saint but an egregious demand sinner (A Evans-Pritchard,Telegraph, Nov 2nd 2013)(via @AmbroseEP)

Germany's Export Obsession Is Dooming Europe to a Depression (The Atlantic, Nov 2nd 2013)

Charlemagne Fawlty Europe (Economist. Nov 2nd 2013)(via @GustavoPiga)
Defending Germany (P Krugman, NYTimes, Nov 2nd 2012)(via @NYTimesKrugman)
Aus der Balance (T Mayer, FAZ, Nov 2nd 2013)
IMF Backs U.S. Treasury in Criticizing German Exports (Bloomberg, Nov 1st 2013)(v @saraeisenFX)
Six Facts About the German Economy (, Nov 1st 2013)(via @noahbarkin)
The Harm Germany Does (P. Krugman, NYTimes, Nov 1st 2013)(via @shireblogger)
The US Treasury is right about Germany’s Eurozone policies: Here is why (Y Varoufakis, Nov 1st 2013)(via @RF_HFC)

Germany rebuffs US criticism of its growth model (BBC, Nov 1st 2013)(via @UNIDO)

Die USA, der deutsche Merkantilismus und die Koalitionsverhandlungen (H Flassbeck, Nov 1st 2013)(via @rkeuper)

A Fiscal Scold, Merkel Softens Tone at Home * (NYTimes, Nov 1st 2013)
It’s Not Germany’s Fault Europe Is Turning Japanese (WSJ, Oct 31st 2013)(via @CristophLawton)
Berlin Dismisses U.S. Criticism of Economy (WSJ, Oct 31st 2013)(via @WSJmarkets)
America’s misplaced lecture to Germany (G. Rachman,FT ($$), Oct 31st 2013)(via @Pa(TtrickBernau)
Schuld sind immer die anderen (Handelsblatt, Oct 31st 2013) (via @blicklog)
Germany rejects U.S. criticism of export reliance (Yahoo/Reuters, Oct 31st 2013)
Analysis: Euro zone current account surplus puts Germany in dock (Yahoo/Reuters, Sept 29th 2013)
Germany Is Not Manipulating the Euro (M Huether, IW cologne)
Exportindustrie: Die Euro-Partner verdienen mit (IW Koeln, May 8th 2013)
Leistungsbilanzen:Investitionsgüter führen zu Überschüssen (IW Koeln, Apr 11th 2013)
Was ist eine Leistungsbilanz? (including: Monatsberichtsaufsatz November 2012,pdf 19 pages) (Bundesbank)

(source (all 4 charts): Thomson/Reuters Datastream)
(3 created by Vincent Flasseur/Reuters -@ReutersFlasseur)

Gesamtübersicht: Entwicklung des deutschen Außenhandels 2000- 2012 (complete data)(
Deutscher Außenhandel (directory of all available data, incl break down per country)(

(, Apr 29th 2013)
German exports in June 2013: –2.1% on June 2012 (, Aug 8th 2013)

re (lack of) consumer spending  
German social insurance system posts big surplus (DW, Apr 12 2013)
While US argues, Germany faces budget surplus (AP, Oct 17th 2013)
German budget surplus jumps in first half of year (BBC, Aug 23rd 2013)
German Health-Care System’s Surplus Is Rising, Die Welt Reports (Bloomberg, Jul 5th 2012)
Dickes Polster: Krankenkassen erzielen erneut Milliarden-Überschuss (Spiegel, Aug 30th 2013)
(surplus health insurance as of June 2013: 29bn Euro)
Germany rakes in record tax income (<=2011)(The Local, Jan 27th 2012)
Germany expects record 2012 tax revenues (DW, Oct 31st 2012)
German tax revenues soar amid solid employment (DW, Oct 21st 2013)

>>Merkel's conservatives will push for a reduction in Germany's debt level to below 60 percent of GDP within 10 years from the current 81 percent, according to a party document obtained by Reuters on Friday.<<
source:Germany may see higher tax revenues, could play role in talks (Reuters, Oct 26th 2013)

re domestic investments
Ailing Infrastructure: Scrimping Threatens Germany's Future (Spiegel, Jun 27th 2013),
but: investment projection renewables Germany 2010-2020: 159,5 bn € (prognos,pdf,ger) 

related links
* = Worry about idiocy not inflation (part II) German austerity myth [EZRopinion]

note: Of course the discussion is ongoing and there will be updates once in a while